BTC · POLYMARKET · 5 MIN

Bitcoin 5-Minute Prediction Market Signals & Analytics

Track the current contract, review completed Marx AI signal cases and inspect timestamped paper-performance reports. Live fair value remains subscriber-only; historical case data is published after a trade closes.

LIVE POLYMARKET ROUND

Bitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

CONNECTING

POLYMARKET UP51%0s ago

MARX FAIR SUBSCRIBER DATA

TIME TO RESOLUTION08:32LIVE

LIQUIDITY: $16.6K
VOLUME: $3.9
CONTRACT: 3126080

OPEN POLYMARKET

ROLLING 24H PAPER PERFORMANCE

Measured signals, visible sample size

HIT RATE: 34.6%
COMPLETED: 26
AVG EDGE: +34.8 pp
EDGE PNL: -$198.54

Limited sample — interpret cautiously

ACTIVE & RECENT

Bitcoin 5-Minute signal case studies

12 PUBLISHED

Jul 28, 10:41 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET

EDGE: +47.7 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$100.00

Jul 28, 10:41 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

EDGE: +5.3 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$8.69

Jul 28, 10:09 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET

EDGE: +44.8 pp
RESULT: WIN
PAPER PNL: $82.67

Jul 28, 09:55 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET

EDGE: +47.7 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$100.00

Jul 28, 09:40 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET

EDGE: +5.1 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$8.69

Jul 28, 09:33 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET

EDGE: +5.3 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$8.69

Jul 28, 08:41 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET

EDGE: +23.2 pp
RESULT: WIN
PAPER PNL: $31.04

Jul 28, 08:26 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

EDGE: +73.0 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$100.00

Jul 28, 08:23 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET

EDGE: +47.7 pp
RESULT: WIN
PAPER PNL: $93.24

Jul 28, 06:57 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET

EDGE: +6.0 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$8.69

Jul 28, 06:53 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET

EDGE: +7.7 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$20.49

Jul 28, 05:53 AM UTCBitcoin Up or Down - July 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET

EDGE: +48.3 pp
RESULT: LOSS
PAPER PNL: -$100.00

CONTRACT LEDGER

Recent Polymarket BTC rounds

NO-SIGNAL ROUNDS ARE NOINDEX

ROUND	STATUS	PM UP	LIQUIDITY	ARCHIVE
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ETJul 29, 10:45 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$13,972.35CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ETJul 29, 10:40 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,132.24CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ETJul 29, 10:35 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,053.99CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ETJul 29, 10:30 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,064.10CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ETJul 29, 10:25 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,086.73CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETJul 29, 10:20 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$14,042.28CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ETJul 29, 10:15 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,046.97CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:05AM-6:10AM ETJul 29, 10:10 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,134.11CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 6:00AM-6:05AM ETJul 29, 10:05 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,091.37CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:55AM-6:00AM ETJul 29, 10:00 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$7,998.40CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:50AM-5:55AM ETJul 29, 09:55 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,095.67CAPTURED	ROUND
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ETJul 29, 09:50 AM UTC	UPCOMING	50.5%CURRENT	$8,068.42CAPTURED	ROUND

STATIC RESEARCH NOTE

How Marx AI evaluates Bitcoin 5-minute markets

AntiPredict treats a Polymarket price as a tradable crowd estimate, not as the answer itself. For each Bitcoin Up/Down contract the research pipeline records the live UP and DOWN quotes, best available bids and asks, visible depth, liquidity, volume and quote timestamp. Marx AI then compares that market state with independent Bitcoin reference data and produces a fair-value estimate. The public hub deliberately withholds the live fair probability and executable edge; completed signal case studies publish historical inputs only after the paper trade has closed.

The five-minute market is the fastest BTC contract in this archive. Microstructure changes, quote freshness and executable spread matter more than slow-moving narrative inputs. A signal therefore requires more than a difference between two headline probabilities. The model checks whether the apparent edge survives the order-book spread, estimated slippage, fees, a safety buffer and minimum depth. This distinction matters in short-horizon prediction markets because a theoretical edge may disappear before an order can be filled. Rounds that do not pass these execution and confidence gates remain ordinary archive pages and are marked noindex.

Rolling performance uses completed simulated positions rather than selected screenshots. Win rate, average edge and paper PnL are shown with their sample size, and limited samples are labelled accordingly. A positive historical result does not imply that the next signal will win. Market rules, latency, liquidity and the external Bitcoin reference used by Polymarket can all change the realized outcome. AntiPredict does not execute a trade and does not present the model estimate as guaranteed financial advice.

The archive is organized by timeframe, UTC report date and individual signal. This makes each claim auditable: a reader can move from the evergreen prediction-market terminal to a daily report, then to a post-mortem containing the entry probability, historical Marx Fair estimate, confidence, execution assumptions and final paper result. The same framework is applied to contracts resolving every five minutes, while the daily Bitcoin market uses a slower, editorial interpretation of news and market regime.