VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.82 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.5%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 07, 10:30 AMAug 07, 10:32 AMAug 07, 10:35 AMAug 07, 10:37 AMAug 07, 10:39 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T10:30:36.792Z | 56.5% | 100.0% | +43.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:30:42.331Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:32:10.259Z | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:32:18.419Z | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:32:26.155Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:32:40.109Z | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:33:10.283Z | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:34:10.323Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:34:27.489Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:34:38.869Z | 85.5% | 100.0% | +14.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:35:10.399Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:35:21.436Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:36:10.344Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:36:27.998Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:37:29.213Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:38:10.689Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:39:29.001Z | 0.5% | 0.1% | -0.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 36.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 36.1%, gross edge 65.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.