Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +61.82 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%36.1% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+61.82 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 85.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 10:30 AMAug 07, 10:31 AMAug 07, 10:31 AMAug 07, 10:32 AMAug 07, 10:32 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T10:30:42.331Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-07T10:32:40.109Z85.5%100.0%+14.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 36.1¢ with a net modeled edge of 61.8 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 36.1%, gross edge 65.0%, slippage 1.1%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 61.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.