Bitcoin Daily Prediction Market Analysis & Reports
Track the current contract, review completed Marx AI signal cases and inspect timestamped paper-performance reports. Live fair value remains subscriber-only; historical case data is published after a trade closes.
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?
- LIQUIDITY
- $21.3K
- VOLUME
- $115.8K
- CONTRACT
- 3114661
Measured signals, visible sample size
- HIT RATE
- — 0W / 0L
- COMPLETED
- 0 PAPER TRADES
- AVG EDGE
- — AT ENTRY
- EDGE PNL
- $0.00 SIMULATED
No completed trades in this window
Bitcoin Daily signal case studies
- EDGE
- +10.6 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$90.72
- EDGE
- +5.7 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$95.51
- EDGE
- +6.4 pp
- RESULT
- WIN
- PAPER PNL
- $45.73
- EDGE
- +5.1 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$5.73
- EDGE
- +7.8 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$4.65
- EDGE
- +5.2 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$20.56
- EDGE
- +5.1 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$71.98
- EDGE
- +14.7 pp
- RESULT
- LOSS
- PAPER PNL
- -$88.45
Recent Polymarket BTC rounds
| ROUND | STATUS | PM UP | LIQUIDITY | ARCHIVE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 29?Jul 29, 04:00 PM UTC | UPCOMING | 51.5%CURRENT | $2,852.98CAPTURED | ROUND |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?Jul 28, 04:00 PM UTC | LIVE | 5.0%CURRENT | $21,310.52CAPTURED | ROUND |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 27?Jul 27, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 0.5%PRE-CLOSE | $23,107.98PRE-CLOSE | ROUND |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?Jul 26, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 97.2%PRE-CLOSE | $25,181.18PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 25?Jul 25, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 96.5%PRE-CLOSE | $20,699.71PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?Jul 24, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 0.1%PRE-CLOSE | $34,927.91PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22?Jul 22, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 16.5%PRE-CLOSE | $24,511.68PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 21?Jul 21, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 96.8%PRE-CLOSE | $20,198.03PRE-CLOSE | ROUND |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 20?Jul 20, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 30.5%PRE-CLOSE | $22,493.76PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 19?Jul 19, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 92.5%PRE-CLOSE | $17,494.95PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18?Jul 18, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 98.0%PRE-CLOSE | $34,140.32PRE-CLOSE | POST-MORTEM |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on July 17?Jul 17, 04:00 PM UTC | CLOSED | 0.5%PRE-CLOSE | $23,482.89PRE-CLOSE | ROUND |
How Marx AI evaluates Bitcoin daily markets
AntiPredict treats a Polymarket price as a tradable crowd estimate, not as the answer itself. For each Bitcoin Up/Down contract the research pipeline records the live UP and DOWN quotes, best available bids and asks, visible depth, liquidity, volume and quote timestamp. Marx AI then compares that market state with independent Bitcoin reference data and produces a fair-value estimate. The public hub deliberately withholds the live fair probability and executable edge; completed signal case studies publish historical inputs only after the paper trade has closed.
The daily Bitcoin market behaves more like an editorial market brief than a high-frequency stream. News, volatility regime and session structure carry more weight than second-by-second order flow. A signal therefore requires more than a difference between two headline probabilities. The model checks whether the apparent edge survives the order-book spread, estimated slippage, fees, a safety buffer and minimum depth. This distinction matters in short-horizon prediction markets because a theoretical edge may disappear before an order can be filled. Rounds that do not pass these execution and confidence gates remain ordinary archive pages and are marked noindex.
Rolling performance uses completed simulated positions rather than selected screenshots. Win rate, average edge and paper PnL are shown with their sample size, and limited samples are labelled accordingly. A positive historical result does not imply that the next signal will win. Market rules, latency, liquidity and the external Bitcoin reference used by Polymarket can all change the realized outcome. AntiPredict does not execute a trade and does not present the model estimate as guaranteed financial advice.
The archive is organized by timeframe, UTC report date and individual signal. This makes each claim auditable: a reader can move from the evergreen prediction-market terminal to a daily report, then to a post-mortem containing the entry probability, historical Marx Fair estimate, confidence, execution assumptions and final paper result. The same framework is applied to contracts resolving every one trading day, while the daily Bitcoin market uses a slower, editorial interpretation of news and market regime.