VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +7.02 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Jul 31, 04:58 PMJul 31, 10:45 PMAug 01, 04:31 AMAug 01, 10:17 AMAug 01, 04:03 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T06:59:04.057Z | 86.5% | 70.4% | -16.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:30:14.477Z | 86.5% | 70.3% | -16.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:46:35.261Z | 84.5% | 69.2% | -15.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:01.992Z | 85.5% | 70.0% | -15.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:48.872Z | 86.5% | 70.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:59:41.961Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:31:06.532Z | 89.5% | 72.9% | -16.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:33:58.199Z | 89.5% | 73.8% | -15.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:54:17.052Z | 91.5% | 76.5% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T08:59:49.412Z | 91.5% | 76.5% | -15.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:45:05.989Z | 91.5% | 75.7% | -15.8 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:58:26.824Z | 90.5% | 72.5% | -18.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T09:58:39.053Z | 90.5% | 72.5% | -18.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T10:56:50.975Z | 90.5% | 74.3% | -16.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T10:58:51.607Z | 90.5% | 74.3% | -16.2 pp |
| 2026-08-01T11:01:41.740Z | 90.5% | 74.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T11:48:49.141Z | 92.5% | 77.8% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-01T11:54:31.650Z | 93.5% | 78.6% | -14.9 pp |
| 2026-08-01T11:58:51.123Z | 93.5% | 78.6% | -14.9 pp |
| 2026-08-01T12:03:58.989Z | 93.5% | 80.5% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T12:58:00.006Z | 95.5% | 84.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T12:59:13.942Z | 95.5% | 84.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-08-01T13:32:54.936Z | 95.5% | 85.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-01T13:58:10.742Z | 95.7% | 95.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T13:59:34.652Z | 95.7% | 95.6% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:55:40.403Z | 97.9% | 97.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T14:59:38.834Z | 97.9% | 97.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T15:58:50.076Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-01T15:59:24.663Z | 99.6% | 99.5% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-01T16:03:47.792Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 63.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 72.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 28.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 28.0%, gross edge 8.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.0%. Marx fair UP is 63.1%.