VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +7.02 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 1?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 74.5%Marx Fair UP 74.5%
Jul 31, 04:00 PMJul 31, 05:48 PMJul 31, 07:36 PMJul 31, 09:25 PMJul 31, 11:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T22:12:59.319Z | 74.0% | 67.0% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:14:04.630Z | 74.5% | 61.1% | -13.4 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:15:15.298Z | 74.0% | 61.1% | -12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:18:54.276Z | 74.0% | 61.2% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:19:42.875Z | 73.5% | 61.2% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:23:17.643Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:24:34.276Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:26:43.842Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:31:53.455Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:32:39.755Z | 72.5% | 74.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:33:33.873Z | 72.5% | 60.8% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:33:39.781Z | 72.5% | 60.8% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:37:38.212Z | 72.5% | 61.4% | -11.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:40:58.243Z | 68.5% | 59.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:42:30.266Z | 68.5% | 59.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:44:03.282Z | 68.5% | 59.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:45:39.285Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:49:25.484Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:54:51.673Z | 67.5% | 58.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:57:20.839Z | 67.5% | 58.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T22:59:41.052Z | 68.5% | 66.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:01:06.165Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:01:42.441Z | 68.5% | 59.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:02:17.042Z | 68.5% | 59.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:03:43.144Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:04:29.538Z | 68.5% | 68.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:06:40.478Z | 72.5% | 68.5% | -4.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:09:37.828Z | 72.5% | 74.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:12:19.447Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-31T23:13:10.889Z | 74.5% | 74.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 63.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 72.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 28.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.0 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 28.0%, gross edge 8.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.4%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.0%. Marx fair UP is 63.1%.