VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.70 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 25?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 96.5%Marx Fair UP 97.1%
Jul 25, 11:57 AMJul 25, 12:47 PMJul 25, 01:36 PMJul 25, 02:26 PMJul 25, 03:16 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25T11:59:08.622Z | 53.5% | 49.9% | -3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-25T12:57:24.756Z | 60.5% | 54.9% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-07-25T12:58:35.780Z | 64.5% | 54.9% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:06:46.728Z | 67.5% | 56.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:17:08.026Z | 70.5% | 58.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:31:09.193Z | 68.5% | 58.3% | -10.2 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:41:07.698Z | 69.0% | 63.4% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:46:12.948Z | 77.0% | 70.7% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:51:11.594Z | 85.0% | 71.3% | -13.7 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:59:46.786Z | 73.5% | 60.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-07-25T13:59:48.129Z | 69.5% | 60.7% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:00:13.074Z | 69.5% | 64.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:09:14.789Z | 64.5% | 63.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:09:55.802Z | 75.5% | 63.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:14:09.997Z | 75.5% | 63.4% | -12.1 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:15:13.651Z | 75.5% | 65.4% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:21:12.111Z | 77.0% | 63.0% | -14.0 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:27:31.519Z | 74.5% | 62.0% | -12.5 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:35:19.893Z | 79.5% | 67.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:38:20.037Z | 79.5% | 69.8% | -9.7 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:46:25.747Z | 85.0% | 70.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:53:25.711Z | 84.5% | 70.8% | -13.7 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:56:40.861Z | 89.0% | 76.7% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-25T14:59:05.526Z | 88.5% | 76.7% | -11.8 pp |
| 2026-07-25T15:01:12.564Z | 89.0% | 73.8% | -15.2 pp |
| 2026-07-25T15:03:24.738Z | 89.0% | 73.0% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-25T15:09:30.685Z | 92.5% | 78.0% | -14.5 pp |
| 2026-07-25T15:12:39.785Z | 96.5% | 84.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-25T15:12:53.662Z | 92.5% | 84.1% | -8.4 pp |
| 2026-07-25T15:16:49.228Z | 96.5% | 97.1% | +0.6 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 54.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 60.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 38.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 35.0%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 6.2%. Marx fair UP is 56.7%.