VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.07 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 19?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 92.5%Marx Fair UP 91.1%
Jul 19, 02:12 AMJul 19, 05:13 AMJul 19, 08:13 AMJul 19, 11:14 AMJul 19, 02:14 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19T09:32:51.599Z | 85.5% | 78.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T09:40:51.711Z | 86.5% | 73.9% | -12.6 pp |
| 2026-07-19T09:45:51.260Z | 82.5% | 74.3% | -8.2 pp |
| 2026-07-19T09:51:50.983Z | 83.5% | 75.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-19T09:56:44.080Z | 82.5% | 75.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-19T09:58:53.961Z | 82.5% | 75.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-19T10:00:52.446Z | 82.5% | 74.2% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-07-19T10:05:51.058Z | 82.5% | 76.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-07-19T10:55:43.722Z | 87.0% | 80.5% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T10:58:52.498Z | 87.0% | 80.5% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:05:51.866Z | 86.5% | 79.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:32:54.299Z | 86.5% | 79.8% | -6.7 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:37:50.823Z | 87.5% | 79.4% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:43:51.326Z | 85.5% | 78.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:51:52.378Z | 84.5% | 77.4% | -7.1 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:59:44.693Z | 82.5% | 76.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-07-19T11:59:53.220Z | 82.5% | 76.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-07-19T12:00:52.416Z | 82.5% | 76.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-19T12:10:51.504Z | 79.5% | 70.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T12:19:54.043Z | 75.5% | 70.0% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T12:26:51.082Z | 79.5% | 70.1% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-07-19T12:59:43.489Z | 84.5% | 78.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T12:59:50.948Z | 84.5% | 78.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T13:35:51.829Z | 87.5% | 80.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-07-19T13:43:52.095Z | 86.5% | 80.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-19T13:49:51.484Z | 90.5% | 83.4% | -7.1 pp |
| 2026-07-19T13:57:52.661Z | 91.5% | 86.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-07-19T13:59:43.719Z | 90.5% | 86.2% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-07-19T14:11:44.328Z | 92.5% | 91.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-07-19T14:14:50.880Z | 92.5% | 91.1% | -1.4 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 81.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 88.0%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 12.5¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 12.5%, gross edge 6.9%, slippage 0.5%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.1%. Oracle fair UP is 81.1%.