VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.92 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 2?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 87.5%Marx Fair UP 87.5%
Aug 01, 04:03 PMAug 01, 07:55 PMAug 01, 11:46 PMAug 02, 03:37 AMAug 02, 07:29 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T05:18:27.940Z | 84.5% | 75.1% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:26:45.188Z | 85.5% | 76.7% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:28:13.496Z | 85.5% | 76.7% | -8.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:35:45.284Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:37:09.109Z | 84.5% | 85.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:44:58.716Z | 84.5% | 74.9% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:48:37.444Z | 82.5% | 74.4% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:48:50.779Z | 83.5% | 74.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:54:09.843Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T05:59:27.458Z | 84.5% | 83.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:01:38.814Z | 83.5% | 83.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:08:41.489Z | 84.5% | 84.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:11:11.169Z | 85.0% | 86.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:13:21.492Z | 86.0% | 86.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:18:26.610Z | 85.0% | 85.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:23:25.773Z | 85.5% | 76.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:25:00.649Z | 85.5% | 76.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:33:01.865Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:33:51.163Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:44:18.171Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:50:12.291Z | 86.5% | 78.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:52:11.124Z | 86.5% | 78.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-02T06:59:35.917Z | 86.5% | 86.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:02:56.806Z | 88.5% | 86.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:06:57.704Z | 88.5% | 78.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:14:09.187Z | 87.5% | 88.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:15:22.498Z | 88.0% | 88.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:19:56.365Z | 87.5% | 79.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:27:08.047Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-02T07:29:17.382Z | 87.5% | 87.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 71.7% while the Polymarket UP price was 80.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 20.7¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 20.7%, gross edge 8.3%, slippage 0.7%, fee 1.1%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.9%. Marx fair UP is 71.7%.