VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +14.68 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 98.0%Marx Fair UP 98.5%
Jul 17, 09:57 PMJul 18, 02:00 AMJul 18, 06:03 AMJul 18, 10:06 AMJul 18, 02:10 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18T06:54:54.954Z | 91.0% | 77.9% | -13.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T06:56:04.595Z | 91.0% | 77.9% | -13.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T07:54:54.432Z | 92.5% | 80.6% | -11.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T07:59:58.086Z | 92.5% | 80.6% | -11.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T08:54:55.306Z | 93.5% | 81.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T08:59:01.420Z | 93.5% | 81.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T08:59:57.845Z | 93.5% | 81.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:04:58.139Z | 94.5% | 81.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:12:01.472Z | 93.5% | 81.2% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:23:02.024Z | 93.5% | 80.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:36:01.031Z | 93.5% | 81.4% | -12.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:54:54.965Z | 94.5% | 82.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:54:59.356Z | 94.5% | 82.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:14:58.834Z | 94.5% | 83.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:50:00.225Z | 95.5% | 85.8% | -9.7 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:52:00.272Z | 95.5% | 86.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:59:01.666Z | 95.5% | 86.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:59:54.312Z | 96.0% | 86.4% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:04:59.095Z | 96.0% | 86.9% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:19:03.262Z | 96.3% | 87.4% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:35:02.543Z | 97.8% | 88.3% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:49:59.751Z | 98.3% | 89.2% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:58:56.275Z | 97.5% | 91.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:59:58.285Z | 97.8% | 91.1% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T12:57:58.845Z | 98.2% | 97.4% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-07-18T12:58:04.146Z | 97.0% | 97.4% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:57:57.752Z | 97.8% | 97.8% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T13:59:58.500Z | 96.9% | 97.8% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T14:09:56.149Z | 98.0% | 98.5% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T14:10:00.785Z | 98.0% | 98.5% | +0.6 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 70.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 86.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 14.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 14.0%, gross edge 15.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.3%. Oracle fair UP is 70.4%.