VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +14.68 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 18?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 98.3%Marx Fair UP 89.2%
Jul 17, 10:49 PMJul 18, 02:04 AMJul 18, 05:19 AMJul 18, 08:34 AMJul 18, 11:49 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17T22:49:54.409Z | 86.5% | 70.4% | -16.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T03:28:33.402Z | 89.5% | 73.1% | -16.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T03:42:33.120Z | 89.5% | 73.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-07-18T03:46:30.253Z | 89.5% | 72.8% | -16.7 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:01:08.735Z | 91.5% | 75.7% | -15.8 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:02:10.796Z | 91.5% | 75.2% | -16.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:16:07.576Z | 90.5% | 75.1% | -15.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:21:08.605Z | 90.5% | 74.6% | -15.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:31:33.933Z | 90.5% | 74.9% | -15.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:33:36.218Z | 91.5% | 74.9% | -16.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T04:55:03.454Z | 90.5% | 74.9% | -15.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T05:09:03.736Z | 90.5% | 75.4% | -15.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T05:28:05.714Z | 90.0% | 75.7% | -14.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T05:36:03.729Z | 90.5% | 76.3% | -14.2 pp |
| 2026-07-18T06:25:00.527Z | 91.5% | 77.8% | -13.7 pp |
| 2026-07-18T08:59:01.420Z | 93.5% | 81.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:04:58.139Z | 94.5% | 81.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:12:01.472Z | 93.5% | 81.2% | -12.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:23:02.024Z | 93.5% | 80.0% | -13.5 pp |
| 2026-07-18T09:36:01.031Z | 93.5% | 81.4% | -12.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:14:58.834Z | 94.5% | 83.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:52:00.272Z | 95.5% | 86.2% | -9.3 pp |
| 2026-07-18T10:59:01.666Z | 95.5% | 86.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:04:59.095Z | 96.0% | 86.9% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:19:03.262Z | 96.3% | 87.4% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:35:02.543Z | 97.8% | 88.3% | -9.4 pp |
| 2026-07-18T11:49:59.751Z | 98.3% | 89.2% | -9.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 70.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 86.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 14.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 14.0%, gross edge 15.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 14.3%. Oracle fair UP is 70.4%.