VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY

BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +6.40 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?

POLYMARKET ENTRY38.5%65.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY26.5%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+6.40 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED

RETURN45.7%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 11.5%Marx Fair UP 1.6%

Jul 24, 01:04 PMJul 24, 01:15 PMJul 24, 01:26 PMJul 24, 01:37 PMJul 24, 01:48 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-07-24T13:04:50.623Z	38.5%	25.4%	-13.1 pp
2026-07-24T13:33:53.797Z	15.5%	2.2%	-13.3 pp
2026-07-24T13:36:54.209Z	11.5%	2.0%	-9.5 pp
2026-07-24T13:43:56.565Z	8.5%	3.2%	-5.3 pp
2026-07-24T13:48:53.873Z	11.5%	1.6%	-9.9 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 26.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 38.5%.
The executable DOWN entry was 65.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.4 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 67.0%, gross edge 7.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.5%. Marx fair UP is 25.4%.