VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +6.40 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 24?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.0%
Jul 24, 10:55 AMJul 24, 12:11 PMJul 24, 01:27 PMJul 24, 02:42 PMJul 24, 03:58 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24T10:55:42.974Z | 50.5% | 50.1% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-07-24T10:56:51.247Z | 51.5% | 50.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-07-24T11:56:48.007Z | 58.5% | 62.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-24T11:59:49.341Z | 58.5% | 62.1% | +3.6 pp |
| 2026-07-24T12:56:56.103Z | 44.5% | 32.3% | -12.2 pp |
| 2026-07-24T12:57:56.919Z | 38.5% | 32.3% | -6.2 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:04:50.623Z | 38.5% | 25.4% | -13.1 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:33:53.797Z | 15.5% | 2.2% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:36:54.209Z | 11.5% | 2.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:43:56.565Z | 8.5% | 3.2% | -5.3 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:48:53.873Z | 11.5% | 1.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:55:58.575Z | 4.5% | 0.0% | -4.5 pp |
| 2026-07-24T13:58:52.433Z | 4.1% | 0.0% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-07-24T14:58:22.794Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-24T14:59:36.874Z | 0.9% | 0.0% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-07-24T15:55:29.012Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-07-24T15:58:38.824Z | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 26.5% while the Polymarket UP price was 38.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 65.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 6.4 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 67.0%, gross edge 7.6%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.5%. Marx fair UP is 25.4%.