VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +8.73 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 04:56 PMAug 05, 10:43 PMAug 06, 04:30 AMAug 06, 10:17 AMAug 06, 04:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T03:59:01.623Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T03:59:12.056Z | 56.5% | 56.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T04:58:58.800Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T04:59:09.560Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:59:13.781Z | 75.5% | 77.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T05:59:38.347Z | 75.5% | 77.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:55:34.299Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T06:58:37.986Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:59:09.614Z | 75.0% | 75.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T07:59:14.241Z | 75.0% | 75.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:58:09.986Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T08:58:19.509Z | 85.5% | 85.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:59:14.940Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T09:59:25.312Z | 70.5% | 70.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:59:09.721Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:59:24.208Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:59:11.315Z | 65.5% | 69.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:59:39.256Z | 65.5% | 69.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:59:09.619Z | 53.5% | 50.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:59:40.509Z | 53.5% | 50.1% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:58:41.327Z | 58.5% | 60.5% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:59:10.102Z | 57.5% | 60.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:00:38.058Z | 57.5% | 63.3% | +5.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:32:45.687Z | 54.5% | 40.6% | -13.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:34:44.389Z | 46.0% | 56.5% | +10.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:59:09.667Z | 91.5% | 96.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:59:41.587Z | 91.5% | 96.9% | +5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:59:09.704Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:59:26.421Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:04:21.364Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 63.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 57.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.3%, gross edge 11.3%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.7%. Marx fair UP is 63.3%.