VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +8.73 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 05, 04:02 PMAug 05, 10:03 PMAug 06, 04:03 AMAug 06, 10:03 AMAug 06, 04:04 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T12:50:11.678Z | 55.5% | 58.5% | +3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:01:43.455Z | 49.5% | 47.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:07:09.936Z | 47.5% | 47.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:16:30.474Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:17:10.212Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:28:29.259Z | 30.5% | 30.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:30:11.290Z | 32.5% | 30.5% | -2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:39:28.316Z | 27.0% | 27.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:45:09.655Z | 49.0% | 27.0% | -22.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:53:24.110Z | 55.5% | 55.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:57:10.514Z | 58.5% | 55.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:04:32.685Z | 56.5% | 50.5% | -6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:09:17.124Z | 58.0% | 50.5% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:15:50.649Z | 60.0% | 62.1% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:23:11.838Z | 55.5% | 50.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:29:47.874Z | 64.0% | 50.8% | -13.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:40:10.670Z | 92.5% | 86.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:44:34.003Z | 92.5% | 86.1% | -6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:57:47.368Z | 91.5% | 92.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T14:59:09.667Z | 91.5% | 92.8% | +1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:09:45.625Z | 97.0% | 99.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:10:10.691Z | 97.0% | 99.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:19:10.063Z | 97.8% | 97.0% | -0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:25:27.069Z | 97.0% | 97.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:27:56.204Z | 97.5% | 97.0% | -0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:36:09.986Z | 97.8% | 99.9% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:40:41.278Z | 98.9% | 99.9% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T15:50:10.232Z | 99.9% | 99.9% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:01:10.029Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T16:04:21.364Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 63.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 57.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 52.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.3%, gross edge 11.3%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.7%. Marx fair UP is 63.3%.