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BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.06 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down on July 22?

POLYMARKET ENTRY15.5%85.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY8.6%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+5.06 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%DOWN UNDERPRICED
RETURN-5.7%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 16.5%Marx Fair UP 15.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0255075100
Jul 22, 06:57 AMJul 22, 07:30 AMJul 22, 08:04 AMJul 22, 08:37 AMJul 22, 09:11 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-22T06:57:31.780Z17.5%14.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-22T06:58:38.638Z17.5%14.0%-3.5 pp
2026-07-22T07:52:01.448Z15.5%8.6%-6.9 pp
2026-07-22T07:58:49.291Z15.5%9.4%-6.1 pp
2026-07-22T07:59:57.231Z15.5%9.4%-6.1 pp
2026-07-22T08:55:15.688Z17.5%12.6%-4.9 pp
2026-07-22T08:58:53.017Z17.5%12.6%-4.9 pp
2026-07-22T09:09:53.629Z16.5%15.1%-1.4 pp
2026-07-22T09:11:09.770Z16.5%15.1%-1.4 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 8.6% while the Polymarket UP price was 15.5%.
  • The executable DOWN entry was 85.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 5.1 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 85.0%, gross edge 6.4%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 5.1%. Marx fair UP is 8.6%.

BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +5.06 pp Edge | AntiPredict