VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +10.55 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 97.2%Marx Fair UP 97.0%
Jul 26, 12:58 AMJul 26, 04:17 AMJul 26, 07:35 AMJul 26, 10:54 AMJul 26, 02:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T09:53:43.006Z | 88.5% | 75.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:56:44.884Z | 87.5% | 75.7% | -11.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:02:03.523Z | 87.5% | 74.3% | -13.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:27:41.251Z | 87.5% | 76.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:46:40.321Z | 89.5% | 79.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:57:37.158Z | 88.0% | 76.3% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:58:52.870Z | 88.5% | 76.3% | -12.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T11:55:52.965Z | 90.5% | 77.9% | -12.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T11:57:20.449Z | 89.5% | 77.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:06:22.766Z | 90.5% | 83.0% | -7.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:22:14.565Z | 94.0% | 81.0% | -13.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:25:17.257Z | 91.5% | 83.9% | -7.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:38:21.422Z | 92.5% | 83.8% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:42:22.365Z | 92.5% | 80.5% | -12.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:47:19.832Z | 91.5% | 77.8% | -13.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:54:23.310Z | 87.0% | 79.1% | -7.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:58:25.927Z | 89.5% | 78.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:59:09.049Z | 89.0% | 78.9% | -10.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:02:20.416Z | 89.0% | 78.8% | -10.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:12:36.478Z | 86.5% | 75.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:17:27.814Z | 87.0% | 79.7% | -7.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:23:32.119Z | 91.5% | 83.4% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:28:24.386Z | 92.5% | 82.0% | -10.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:33:28.589Z | 91.5% | 82.0% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:40:20.335Z | 91.5% | 83.0% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:54:35.726Z | 93.5% | 87.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:56:24.713Z | 93.5% | 87.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:58:32.019Z | 93.5% | 86.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:11:01.832Z | 97.2% | 97.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:13:21.981Z | 97.2% | 97.0% | -0.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 68.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 79.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 19.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 16.0%, gross edge 12.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 10.7%. Marx fair UP is 71.9%.