VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +10.55 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 26?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 97.2%Marx Fair UP 97.0%
Jul 26, 12:03 AMJul 26, 03:35 AMJul 26, 07:08 AMJul 26, 10:40 AMJul 26, 02:13 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T13:03:17.395Z | 89.5% | 76.6% | -12.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:03:30.339Z | 87.5% | 76.6% | -10.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:05:34.171Z | 89.5% | 75.2% | -14.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:08:35.792Z | 86.5% | 75.1% | -11.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:10:28.260Z | 87.5% | 75.1% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:16:35.207Z | 86.5% | 78.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:18:45.147Z | 91.5% | 80.8% | -10.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:20:36.386Z | 87.0% | 80.8% | -6.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:22:19.317Z | 91.5% | 83.8% | -7.7 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:25:37.215Z | 91.5% | 82.6% | -8.9 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:28:57.095Z | 91.5% | 80.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:30:01.199Z | 92.5% | 80.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:32:20.485Z | 91.5% | 80.3% | -11.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:34:08.245Z | 91.5% | 81.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:35:27.972Z | 91.5% | 81.5% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:37:24.340Z | 91.5% | 83.2% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:41:19.238Z | 91.5% | 85.4% | -6.1 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:44:15.355Z | 94.5% | 87.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:45:14.743Z | 94.5% | 87.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:50:28.908Z | 94.5% | 87.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:54:35.726Z | 93.5% | 87.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:56:24.713Z | 93.5% | 87.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:00:20.584Z | 95.5% | 88.1% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:01:31.444Z | 93.5% | 88.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:03:33.866Z | 93.5% | 90.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:07:22.822Z | 95.5% | 94.7% | -0.8 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:09:23.090Z | 95.5% | 97.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:11:01.832Z | 97.2% | 97.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:11:23.678Z | 97.2% | 97.0% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:13:21.981Z | 97.2% | 97.0% | -0.2 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 68.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 79.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 19.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 10.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 16.0%, gross edge 12.1%, slippage 0.0%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 10.7%. Marx fair UP is 71.9%.