VERIFIED PAPER CASE · DAILY
BTC Daily Signal Post-Mortem: +7.83 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 20?
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 30.5%Marx Fair UP 24.8%
Jul 20, 08:53 AMJul 20, 10:10 AMJul 20, 11:27 AMJul 20, 12:43 PMJul 20, 02:00 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20T08:53:17.859Z | 23.5% | 18.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-20T08:57:21.937Z | 23.5% | 18.8% | -4.7 pp |
| 2026-07-20T09:54:19.714Z | 30.5% | 26.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-07-20T09:57:24.124Z | 30.5% | 26.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-07-20T10:57:27.801Z | 33.5% | 29.6% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-07-20T10:58:34.903Z | 34.5% | 29.6% | -4.9 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:49:45.457Z | 67.5% | 79.1% | +11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:56:39.898Z | 72.5% | 82.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-07-20T11:59:44.633Z | 72.5% | 82.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-07-20T12:00:45.826Z | 72.5% | 80.3% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-07-20T12:54:39.307Z | 53.5% | 56.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-07-20T12:59:45.307Z | 53.5% | 56.3% | +2.8 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:55:46.204Z | 59.5% | 24.1% | -35.4 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:56:45.243Z | 59.5% | 21.3% | -38.2 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:59:39.445Z | 30.5% | 22.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-20T13:59:44.929Z | 30.5% | 22.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-07-20T14:00:47.197Z | 30.5% | 24.8% | -5.7 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 24.1% while the Polymarket UP price was 59.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 66.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 7.8 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 66.0%, gross edge 9.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 7.8%. Marx fair UP is 24.1%.