Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.54 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY64.8%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+11.54 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN89.6%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 64.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.5 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 13.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 11.5%. Marx fair UP is 64.8%.