VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +11.54 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 64.5%Marx Fair UP 75.5%
Aug 07, 09:25 AMAug 07, 09:27 AMAug 07, 09:29 AMAug 07, 09:32 AMAug 07, 09:34 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T09:25:48.615Z | 77.5% | 91.2% | +13.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:26:10.451Z | 77.5% | 77.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:26:19.681Z | 77.5% | 77.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:26:55.064Z | 77.5% | 99.8% | +22.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:29:00.417Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:29:14.798Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:29:25.834Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:30:10.593Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:31:10.388Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:32:10.531Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:33:11.223Z | 75.5% | 75.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T09:34:10.940Z | 64.5% | 75.5% | +11.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 64.8% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 11.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 13.8%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 11.5%. Marx fair UP is 64.8%.