VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.70 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Aug 07, 09:25 PMAug 07, 09:27 PMAug 07, 09:29 PMAug 07, 09:32 PMAug 07, 09:34 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T21:25:22.649Z | 66.5% | 59.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:25:26.193Z | 59.5% | 59.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:25:48.906Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:25:50.207Z | 50.5% | 100.0% | +49.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:27:32.164Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:28:11.484Z | 66.5% | 50.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:28:15.033Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:28:21.383Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:29:10.540Z | 66.5% | 50.5% | -16.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:29:12.941Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:29:22.159Z | 66.5% | 66.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:29:38.193Z | 66.5% | 100.0% | +33.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:30:10.704Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:30:20.879Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:31:10.612Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:31:22.389Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:32:11.224Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:33:10.597Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:34:13.542Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 67.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.7 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 67.3%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.