Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +30.70 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%67.3% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+30.70 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN45.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 99.5%Marx Fair UP 99.5%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 09:25 PMAug 07, 09:27 PMAug 07, 09:28 PMAug 07, 09:29 PMAug 07, 09:31 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T21:25:50.207Z50.5%100.0%+49.5 pp
2026-08-07T21:31:22.389Z99.5%99.5%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 67.3¢ with a net modeled edge of 30.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 67.3%, gross edge 33.0%, slippage 0.3%, fee 1.5%, safety 0.5%, net edge 30.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.