Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.61 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY99.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.61 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 11:31 AMAug 07, 11:33 AMAug 07, 11:34 AMAug 07, 11:35 AMAug 07, 11:37 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T11:31:36.771Z27.5%100.0%+72.5 pp
2026-08-07T11:37:27.543Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.2%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.