VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.61 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 07, 11:31 AMAug 07, 11:33 AMAug 07, 11:35 AMAug 07, 11:37 AMAug 07, 11:39 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T11:31:13.299Z | 27.5% | 49.5% | +22.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:31:18.343Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:31:29.324Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:31:36.771Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:32:10.672Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:33:11.659Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:33:26.233Z | 27.5% | 27.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:33:41.339Z | 27.5% | 100.0% | +72.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:34:11.684Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:35:10.506Z | 0.1% | 0.5% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:35:29.424Z | 0.5% | 0.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:35:43.904Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:35:44.689Z | 0.5% | 100.0% | +99.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:36:16.604Z | 0.1% | 100.0% | +99.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:37:10.388Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:37:27.543Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:38:11.200Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T11:39:31.776Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 99.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 2.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 48.2%, gross edge 53.0%, slippage 1.2%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 49.5%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.