VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.75 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE

MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED

MODELED EDGE+46.75 ppNET AT ENTRY

CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED

RETURN89.6%SIMULATED

ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 49.5%Marx Fair UP 49.5%

Aug 07, 10:12 PMAug 07, 10:14 PMAug 07, 10:16 PMAug 07, 10:17 PMAug 07, 10:19 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
Time	Polymarket	Marx Fair	Edge
2026-08-07T22:12:43.320Z	55.5%	55.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:13:11.533Z	55.5%	55.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:13:31.621Z	55.5%	55.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:14:11.131Z	55.5%	55.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:15:11.590Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:15:22.276Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:15:47.706Z	99.5%	100.0%	+0.5 pp
2026-08-07T22:16:10.580Z	99.5%	100.0%	+0.5 pp
2026-08-07T22:17:10.790Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:17:41.438Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:18:11.003Z	99.5%	99.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:19:12.089Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp
2026-08-07T22:19:42.118Z	49.5%	49.5%	+0.0 pp

AUDIT TRAIL

Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.8 percentage points.
Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.

MODEL NOTE

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 52.0%, gross edge 48.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 45.8%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.