VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +14.47 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
No price history is available for this range.
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 33.3% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable DOWN entry was 50.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 14.5 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy DOWN: $100 VWAP 50.0%, gross edge 13.5%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.8%, safety 0.5%, net edge 11.3%. Marx fair UP is 36.5%.