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VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.43 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%56.4% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+41.43 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 08:16 AMAug 08, 08:18 AMAug 08, 08:20 AMAug 08, 08:22 AMAug 08, 08:24 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T08:16:17.528Z58.5%50.5%-8.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:16:32.816Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:16:42.227Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:17:10.933Z58.5%50.5%-8.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:17:20.611Z50.5%50.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:17:30.717Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:17:52.863Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-08-08T08:17:53.063Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-08-08T08:18:15.019Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-08-08T08:19:10.992Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:19:29.925Z58.5%58.5%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:19:51.813Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-08-08T08:19:52.921Z58.5%100.0%+41.5 pp
2026-08-08T08:20:14.314Z0.1%100.0%+99.9 pp
2026-08-08T08:21:11.873Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:21:22.408Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:22:11.368Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:22:26.450Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:23:16.141Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
2026-08-08T08:24:52.319Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 56.4¢ with a net modeled edge of 41.4 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 56.4%, gross edge 44.0%, slippage 0.4%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 41.4%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +41.43 pp Edge | AntiPredict