Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.93 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY49.5%34.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+63.93 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN181.1%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 01:16 PMAug 07, 01:18 PMAug 07, 01:19 PMAug 07, 01:21 PMAug 07, 01:22 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T13:16:40.563Z49.5%100.0%+50.5 pp
2026-08-07T13:18:41.332Z32.5%100.0%+67.5 pp
2026-08-07T13:22:28.161Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 34.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.9 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 38.0%, gross edge 62.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.