VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +63.93 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 07, 01:15 PMAug 07, 01:17 PMAug 07, 01:19 PMAug 07, 01:22 PMAug 07, 01:24 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T13:15:19.301Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:15:36.927Z | 49.5% | 49.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:16:10.261Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:16:40.563Z | 49.5% | 100.0% | +50.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:17:13.894Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:18:11.981Z | 32.5% | 44.5% | +12.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:18:24.732Z | 44.5% | 44.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:18:35.132Z | 32.5% | 32.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:18:41.332Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:19:11.222Z | 32.5% | 100.0% | +67.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:20:10.431Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:20:28.393Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:20:41.902Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:21:12.385Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:21:18.305Z | 65.5% | 100.0% | +34.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:21:30.901Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:22:10.390Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:22:28.161Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:23:14.088Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:24:23.199Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 49.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 34.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 63.9 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 38.0%, gross edge 62.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.6%, safety 0.5%, net edge 59.9%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.