Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +46.73 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+46.73 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-8.5%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 57.5%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 08, 06:37 AMAug 08, 06:37 AMAug 08, 06:37 AMAug 08, 06:37 AMAug 08, 06:37 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T06:37:42.013Z57.5%100.0%+42.5 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 46.7 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 49.0%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 46.7%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.