VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.62 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Aug 08, 11:15 AMAug 08, 11:17 AMAug 08, 11:19 AMAug 08, 11:22 AMAug 08, 11:24 AM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T11:15:39.197Z | 7.5% | 50.5% | +43.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:16:30.374Z | 50.5% | 50.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:17:38.947Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:17:48.444Z | 7.5% | 63.9% | +56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:18:11.161Z | 7.5% | 63.9% | +56.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:19:13.280Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:19:25.109Z | 7.5% | 7.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:19:39.495Z | 7.5% | 69.6% | +62.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:19:39.902Z | 7.5% | 69.6% | +62.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:20:17.630Z | 7.5% | 69.6% | +62.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:21:13.858Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:21:25.970Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:22:11.412Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:23:11.232Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-08T11:24:16.920Z | 0.1% | 0.1% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 61.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 10.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.6%. Marx fair UP is 61.9%.