Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +8.62 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY50.5%51.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY61.9%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+8.62 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN-100.0%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 0.1%Marx Fair UP 0.1%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%
Aug 08, 11:21 AMAug 08, 11:21 AMAug 08, 11:21 AMAug 08, 11:21 AMAug 08, 11:21 AM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-08T11:21:25.970Z0.1%0.1%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 61.9% while the Polymarket UP price was 50.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 51.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 8.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 51.0%, gross edge 10.9%, slippage 0.0%, fee 1.7%, safety 0.5%, net edge 8.6%. Marx fair UP is 61.9%.