Bitcoin Prediction Markets
Bitcoin 5-Minute hub
VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN

BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +13.61 pp Edge

Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET

POLYMARKET ENTRY63.5%85.0% EXECUTABLE
MARX FAIR AT ENTRY100.0%HISTORICAL · CLOSED
MODELED EDGE+13.61 ppNET AT ENTRY
CONFIDENCE83.3%UP UNDERPRICED
RETURN16.4%SIMULATED
ROUND REPLAY

Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence

Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history0%25%50%75%100%
Aug 07, 10:46 PMAug 07, 10:48 PMAug 07, 10:49 PMAug 07, 10:50 PMAug 07, 10:52 PM UTC

Market UP and Marx Fair UP history

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-07T22:46:39.660Z63.5%100.0%+36.5 pp
2026-08-07T22:52:25.439Z100.0%100.0%+0.0 pp
AUDIT TRAIL

Signal breakdown and trigger

  • Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 63.5%.
  • The executable UP entry was 85.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 13.6 percentage points.
  • Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
  • Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE

Marx AI inference

Buy UP: $100 VWAP 85.6%, gross edge 15.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.