VERIFIED PAPER CASE · 5 MIN
BTC 5-Minute Signal Post-Mortem: +13.61 pp Edge
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
ROUND REPLAY
Interactive Polymarket vs Marx Fair divergence
Market UP 100.0%Marx Fair UP 100.0%
Aug 07, 10:45 PMAug 07, 10:47 PMAug 07, 10:49 PMAug 07, 10:52 PMAug 07, 10:54 PM UTC
Market UP and Marx Fair UP history
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T22:45:26.797Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:45:27.500Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:46:10.568Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:46:39.660Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:47:10.619Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:48:10.662Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:48:17.923Z | 63.5% | 63.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:48:40.218Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:49:10.785Z | 63.5% | 100.0% | +36.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:50:10.613Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:50:17.912Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:50:26.062Z | 99.5% | 99.5% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:50:42.411Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:51:10.682Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:52:11.972Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:52:25.439Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:53:11.093Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T22:54:20.052Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
AUDIT TRAIL
Signal breakdown and trigger
- Marx Fair was 100.0% while the Polymarket UP price was 63.5%.
- The executable UP entry was 85.0¢ with a net modeled edge of 13.6 percentage points.
- Model confidence at the signal was 83.3%.
- Observed order-book spread at entry was 1.0¢.
MODEL NOTE
Marx AI inference
Buy UP: $100 VWAP 85.6%, gross edge 15.0%, slippage 0.6%, fee 0.9%, safety 0.5%, net edge 13.0%. Marx fair UP is 100.0%.