Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 18:30 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15T11:58:53.996Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-16T10:47:30.408Z | 5.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T09:59:40.432Z | 5.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T21:57:08.141Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:57:52.178Z | 5.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:57:24.889Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T19:56:04.554Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T02:58:41.572Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:57:20.120Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-10T16:56:18.041Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T23:55:52.950Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T06:57:29.035Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T13:55:47.164Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-19T20:56:25.048Z | 4.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T03:58:24.498Z | 7.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T11:54:05.950Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T15:55:54.460Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T09:59:05.945Z | 6.1% | - | — |
| 2026-09-18T16:53:34.705Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-09-21T00:57:31.698Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-23T07:37:24.958Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-25T14:55:54.374Z | 6.9% | - | — |
| 2026-09-27T21:58:23.118Z | 8.6% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T04:36:05.374Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T11:58:25.710Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T18:30:27.901Z | 6.3% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.