Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 09:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18T05:27:46.732Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T05:38:22.801Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T05:49:47.111Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T05:55:39.322Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:05:58.319Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:16:16.837Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:21:29.516Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:31:56.519Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:42:15.991Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:52:26.940Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T06:59:38.483Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:10:00.861Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:20:13.204Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:25:39.017Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:35:55.945Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:46:37.482Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T07:57:06.272Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:04:47.623Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:09:55.584Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:20:36.141Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:34:03.092Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:39:05.091Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:46:07.693Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:56:22.531Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:06:36.761Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:14:16.211Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:27:50.270Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:32:59.795Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:43:42.982Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:47:57.348Z | 2.4% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.