Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 18:30 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03T12:50:36.087Z | 6.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T13:54:55.810Z | 6.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T14:00:00.827Z | 6.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T15:06:16.420Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T16:06:54.368Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T17:11:21.191Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T18:25:41.394Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T19:46:57.597Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T20:22:07.202Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T21:23:12.505Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T22:28:34.585Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T23:52:23.743Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T00:34:47.028Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T01:40:03.718Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T02:43:32.961Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T03:44:12.642Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T05:04:46.270Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T05:55:25.831Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T06:58:41.177Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T08:32:40.025Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T09:08:24.881Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T10:19:29.015Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T11:09:32.578Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T12:20:45.562Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T13:30:05.167Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:18:50.381Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:25:33.053Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:36:56.330Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:29:10.623Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T18:30:27.901Z | 6.3% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.