Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTCMarket data: Oct 5, 2026, 19:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30T08:58:43.256Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T13:31:05.085Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T17:50:44.292Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T22:51:30.956Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T03:59:06.341Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T07:10:44.555Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T11:54:43.715Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T16:50:14.550Z | 7.1% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T20:52:14.102Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T01:59:21.593Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T05:46:29.902Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T10:39:39.215Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T15:58:10.808Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T19:47:00.525Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T23:59:04.031Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T04:58:38.397Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T08:58:50.274Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T13:54:55.810Z | 6.9% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T18:50:40.042Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T22:54:05.939Z | 5.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T03:54:44.485Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T07:49:29.916Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T12:56:53.877Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:42:48.571Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T21:23:54.305Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T01:41:41.243Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T06:18:39.430Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T10:49:31.879Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T15:42:54.938Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-05T19:47:19.291Z | 6.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.