Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 05:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 09:47 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12T22:59:32.275Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T03:59:49.972Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T07:59:51.894Z | 5.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T12:52:23.106Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T16:56:55.516Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T21:56:22.078Z | 4.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T01:55:10.285Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T06:56:50.889Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T10:59:40.411Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T15:52:27.634Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-14T19:55:14.340Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T00:56:26.540Z | 4.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T04:57:35.996Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T09:54:10.372Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T13:59:45.617Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T18:57:37.248Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-15T22:59:50.685Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T03:57:46.091Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T08:59:36.709Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T12:55:07.487Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T17:58:23.990Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T21:59:44.142Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T02:58:23.678Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T06:55:44.764Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T11:13:38.037Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T15:46:16.465Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T20:15:12.134Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T00:46:02.132Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T05:17:20.216Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T09:47:57.348Z | 2.4% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.