Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 18:29 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04T14:29:49.685Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:39:00.570Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:44:03.485Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:49:05.300Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T14:54:06.780Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:07:26.753Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:20:27.617Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:25:33.053Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:31:02.115Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:36:25.373Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:41:52.654Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T15:47:06.877Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:00:45.152Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:13:47.618Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:18:50.682Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:23:57.191Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:36:56.330Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T16:42:48.571Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:13:24.483Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:18:28.283Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:23:30.945Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:29:10.623Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:34:42.596Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:40:33.015Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:53:47.577Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:59:14.599Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T18:04:57.674Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T18:10:07.792Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T18:29:16.538Z | 6.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T18:29:44.702Z | 6.3% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.