Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Jan 1, 2027, 04:59 UTCMarket data: Oct 4, 2026, 17:44 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29T06:50:59.719Z | 7.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-29T11:59:30.795Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-29T15:59:29.698Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-29T20:51:10.191Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T00:57:42.999Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T05:38:13.231Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T09:54:34.838Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T14:32:52.357Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T18:55:23.277Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-30T23:59:51.832Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T03:59:06.341Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T08:52:06.365Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T12:56:40.560Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T17:56:00.877Z | 7.1% | - | — |
| 2026-10-01T21:59:34.687Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T02:59:50.866Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T07:57:31.148Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T11:58:25.710Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T16:55:05.156Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-02T20:50:55.198Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T01:58:11.094Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T05:58:15.938Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T10:44:51.788Z | 7.0% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T14:39:46.180Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T19:46:57.597Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-03T23:52:23.743Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T04:33:25.248Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T08:48:20.933Z | 6.7% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T13:30:05.167Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-10-04T17:44:51.799Z | 6.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.