Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26T07:50:26.614Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T08:50:41.825Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T09:59:26.676Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T10:33:40.192Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T11:50:29.127Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T12:50:50.988Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T13:51:33.803Z | 27.5% | 15.9% | -11.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T14:52:12.249Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T15:52:44.952Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T17:53:52.520Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T18:54:15.345Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T19:54:30.678Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T20:55:08.593Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T22:55:57.982Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-26T23:56:44.167Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-27T00:57:38.132Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-27T17:56:53.220Z | 22.5% | 15.9% | -6.6 pp |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:12.360Z | 26.5% | 15.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:22.900Z | 24.5% | 15.9% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-03T14:57:59.573Z | 20.5% | 15.9% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T22:56:11.418Z | 15.5% | 15.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-08T05:56:34.450Z | 16.5% | 15.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-10T12:55:34.492Z | 16.5% | 15.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-12T19:56:19.039Z | 17.5% | 15.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-15T02:56:27.367Z | 16.5% | 15.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-17T09:59:31.614Z | 17.5% | 15.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-19T16:57:48.141Z | 17.5% | 15.9% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-21T23:57:35.865Z | 16.5% | 15.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-24T07:59:37.433Z | 16.5% | 15.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-26T05:10:58.671Z | 15.5% | 15.9% | +0.4 pp |
2026-07-16T22:20:56.791114Z — JD Vance accuses Israel of 'manipulating' US public opinion to prolong Iran war
2026-07-17T03:26:02.432024Z — US denies Iranian claims it hit civilian infrastructure in latest strikes
2026-07-18T03:29:19.768383Z — US-Iran war: UN chief calls for new diplomatic push following attacks on civilian areas
2026-07-18T03:29:48.759206Z — Gulf crisis: Guterres calls for de-escalation, warns against return to full-on war
2026-07-18T03:30:11.381577Z — UN chief urges Iran and US to ‘urgently resume negotiations’ as Gulf strikes escalate
2026-07-18T03:30:19.839386Z — ‘Cycle of escalation must end’: UN condemns deadly Strait of Hormuz attacks
2026-07-18T03:30:29.196745Z — Strait of Hormuz: UN agencies call for diplomacy to end attacks
2026-07-18T07:38:53.669285Z — US strikes hit Iran for seventh consecutive night
2026-07-19T00:03:51.465551Z — Two US troops killed and one missing after Iranian attack in Jordan
2026-07-19T12:01:07.589471Z — US soldier killed and one injured after Iranian attack in Iraq
2026-07-20T10:33:05.947687Z — Trump warns Iran will pay 'many times over' for deaths of US soldiers
2026-07-21T00:05:03.943829Z — US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for deaths of soldiers
2026-07-21T00:14:35.504735Z — Middle East: Civilians again under fire as US-Iran strikes continue
2026-07-22T00:26:18.167908Z — Guterres calls for stepping up diplomatic efforts to end US-Iran conflict
2026-07-25T00:01:42.133358Z — Stranded seafarers remain trapped as Hormuz shipping stalls
2026-07-25T00:03:07.342406Z — Middle East: UN warns against wider escalation after Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
2026-07-26T00:09:16.245903Z — Iranian army claims ‘almost all’ US infrastructure in Iraq’s Erbil destroyed
2026-07-26T00:09:26.622257Z — US says naval blockade against Iran remains in effect
2026-07-26T00:24:56.838243Z — Trump says full-scale war with Iran ‘if we don't get 100% of what we want’: Report
2026-07-26T00:37:50.662804Z — Trump directs US military to temporarily halt strikes on Iran: Report
2026-07-26T00:41:15.329223Z — Trump pauses plans for major escalation against Iran: Report
2026-07-27T00:32:16.925558Z — Top US officials urged Trump to avoid major escalation with Iran: Report
2026-07-27T00:32:21.443559Z — Top US officials urged restraint in Iran war as Trump weighed escalation: Report
2026-07-27T00:36:10.822783Z — Iran says it continues exchanging messages with US, but conditions for talks are absent
2026-07-27T00:36:20.139295Z — Pentagon creates new casualty reporting category to separate Iran war losses by period
2026-07-28T00:07:27.367582Z — Iran warns US naval blockade would amount to ‘expansion of war’ in region
2026-07-28T00:18:12.586648Z — Oil prices tumble over 10% on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy
2026-07-28T00:22:42.623743Z — European stocks close higher as US-Iran tensions ease
2026-07-28T00:32:42.315391Z — Trump says there is ‘good chance’ of deal with Iran
2026-07-28T00:40:47.553466Z — CENTCOM says US forces redirected 17 commercial vessels, boarded 2
2026-07-29T00:13:54.046343Z — Iranian missiles reportedly target US bases in Jordan
2026-07-29T00:33:39.334541Z — All Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted after attempted attack on US forces in Middle East: CENTCOM
2026-07-29T01:04:41.234352Z — US, Saudi forces strike Iran-backed targets in Iraq: CENTCOM
2026-07-29T01:40:38.125024Z — Netanyahu hails Trump meeting, cites ‘shared goal’ on Iran
2026-07-30T00:05:26.390697Z — Trump's approval hits new low as majority oppose US military action against Iran: Poll
2026-07-30T00:06:08.840955Z — US vice president meets Saudi defense minister in Washington amid heightened regional tensions
2026-07-30T00:10:13.730902Z — Trump vows 'very hard' response after drone strike on US-owned LNG tanker in Egypt
2026-07-30T00:25:06.575526Z — Schumer says Democrats will force new Senate vote on Iran war powers resolution
2026-07-30T00:29:48.589596Z — 4 members of Iran’s IRGC killed in US-Saudi strike in Iraq: Report
2026-07-30T00:30:04.068214Z — European stocks close mostly lower amid rising US-Iran tensions
2026-07-30T00:44:58.844854Z — Trump expresses concern about Iran war's economic fallout in meeting with Netanyahu: Report
2026-07-30T00:45:06.613538Z — Trump expresses concern about Iran war's economic fallout in meeting with Netanyahu: Report
2026-07-30T00:49:49.667986Z — US launches new strikes against Iran
2026-07-30T00:51:39.834812Z — Political signal changed
2026-07-30T00:57:50.014978Z — Iraqis injured in US-Saudi strikes transferred to Iran for medical treatment: Report
2026-07-31T00:04:17.023566Z — US sanctions global networks supporting Iran’s Mahan Air, Revolutionary Guards
2026-07-31T00:12:32.390282Z — US Senate rejects attempt to limit military action against Iran
2026-07-31T00:12:55.327588Z — Iraq rejects claims it facilitated US-Saudi strikes, says ‘no prior knowledge’ of attacks
2026-07-31T00:16:49.776969Z — Iranian army says drones target key US facilities at Bahrain’s Sheikh Isa Air Base
2026-08-01T00:00:36.954617Z — First US refueling aircraft arrive in Bulgaria for Middle East support mission
2026-08-01T00:01:57.159156Z — US, Israel preparing major strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure: Report
2026-08-01T00:06:05.303644Z — US, Israel preparing major strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure: Reports
2026-08-01T00:17:49.712627Z — US struggles to protect Kuwait from Iran: Report
2026-08-01T00:18:14.236391Z — Trump says US will hit Iran 'very hard,' wants to 'win' war
2026-08-01T00:18:32.429020Z — Trump says US will hit Iran 'very hard,' wants to 'win' war
2026-08-01T00:35:31.850375Z — Zelenskyy claims Russia wants Mideast conflict to continue to limit US support for Ukraine
2026-08-01T00:37:00.081889Z — Iran's IRGC says it hit 2 tankers, forced 4 others to turn back in Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-01T00:42:41.652696Z — Iran's army claims drone attack on US facilities at Kuwait air base
2026-08-04T21:28:20.291413Z — US military depletes nearly 80% of key missile interceptors amid Iran war: Report
2026-08-04T21:32:05.355161Z — Political signal changed
2026-08-04T21:32:20.625384Z — Qatari emir, Trump review efforts to de-escalate US-Iran tensions
2026-08-04T21:32:39.929693Z — Political signal changed
2026-08-04T21:33:47.445009Z — Mediators prepping document for reopening Hormuz amid indirect US-Iran contacts: Sources
2026-08-04T21:34:24.852006Z — Oil prices plunge around 6% as US-Iran diplomacy eases supply fears
2026-08-04T21:36:14.256526Z — Understanding with Oman on Strait of Hormuz 'within reach' if US stops interference: Iranian official
2026-08-04T21:45:09.922398Z — Middle East crisis: Humanitarian fallout ‘worsening by the day’
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
THE PIVOT
Auditable Marx and crowd reaction history
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 19.7% → 18.9%
- REACTION
- 532.67s
- CROWD LAG
- 580s
2026-08-04T21:32:03.754485+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 19.7% to 18.9%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 532666 ms. Crowd Lag 580 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 17.9% → 19.7%
- REACTION
- 498.87s
- CROWD LAG
- 183434s
2026-08-04T21:27:41.171809+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 17.9% to 19.7%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 498871 ms. Crowd Lag 183434 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 27.2% → 38.0%
- REACTION
- 595.52s
- CROWD LAG
- STILL OPEN
2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 27.2% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 26.5%. Reaction Time 595518 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
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- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
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FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 12:57 AM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 11:56 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 10:55 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 08:55 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 07:54 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 06:54 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 05:53 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
| Jul 26, 03:52 PM | 22.5% | 15.9% | −6.6 pp | BUY NO |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
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