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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC

VERDICTMARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 15.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0%6%13%19%25%
MARX FAIRFresh Fair Price data is temporarily unavailable.
Aug 26, 05:10 AMAug 26, 05:10 AMAug 26, 05:10 AMAug 26, 05:10 AMAug 26, 05:10 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-08-26T05:10:58.671Z15.5%-—

2026-08-04T21:32:03.754485+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 19.7% to 18.9%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 532666 ms. Crowd Lag 580 seconds.

2026-08-04T21:27:41.171809+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 17.9% to 19.7%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 498871 ms. Crowd Lag 183434 seconds.

2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 27.2% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 26.5%. Reaction Time 595518 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.

MARKET TIMELINE

Events are placed when they became available to the system

0 events

No linked events in this range.

THE PIVOT

Auditable Marx and crowd reaction history

  1. Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
    MARX FAIR
    19.7% → 18.9%
    REACTION
    532.67s
    CROWD LAG
    580s

    2026-08-04T21:32:03.754485+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 19.7% to 18.9%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 532666 ms. Crowd Lag 580 seconds.

  2. Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
    MARX FAIR
    17.9% → 19.7%
    REACTION
    498.87s
    CROWD LAG
    183434s

    2026-08-04T21:27:41.171809+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 17.9% to 19.7%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 498871 ms. Crowd Lag 183434 seconds.

  3. Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
    MARX FAIR
    27.2% → 38.0%
    REACTION
    595.52s
    CROWD LAG
    STILL OPEN

    2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 27.2% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 26.5%. Reaction Time 595518 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.

MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE

  • The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
  • Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
  • No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.

Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

TRADE YES/NOWHY NO ANALYSISSTRATEGY