Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T00:36:53.401Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:02:07.192Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:27:23.635Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:52:34.117Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:17:57.952Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:43:08.787Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:08:45.955Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:34:02.331Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:59:23.389Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:29:42.304Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:54:58.404Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:20:13.392Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:45:28.508Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:10:47.075Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:35:58.478Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:01:13.617Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:26:27.262Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:51:43.478Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:17:03.487Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:42:18.311Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:07:31.989Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:32:53.919Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:05:03.396Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:30:17.787Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:59.006Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:21:17.494Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:53.675Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:12:24.744Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:37:46.568Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z | 21.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.