Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20T19:53:26.225Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-20T23:40:21.729Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T04:43:41.156Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T08:58:01.479Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T13:56:13.782Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T17:53:23.608Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T22:42:55.093Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T02:47:19.549Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T07:59:20.399Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T12:58:43.049Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T16:52:50.421Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T20:57:48.513Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T01:59:18.578Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T06:48:01.441Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T10:59:15.894Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T15:55:57.829Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T19:41:27.003Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T00:55:52.580Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T04:50:25.934Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T09:50:38.614Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T13:44:52.997Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T18:55:21.942Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T22:55:39.365Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T03:29:57.698Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T08:00:33.961Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T12:14:25.257Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T16:45:15.024Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T21:15:56.499Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T01:52:40.507Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T05:10:58.671Z | 15.5% | - | — |
2026-08-04T21:32:03.754485+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 19.7% to 18.9%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 532666 ms. Crowd Lag 580 seconds.
2026-08-04T21:27:41.171809+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 17.9% to 19.7%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 498871 ms. Crowd Lag 183434 seconds.
2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 27.2% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 26.5%. Reaction Time 595518 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
THE PIVOT
Auditable Marx and crowd reaction history
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 19.7% → 18.9%
- REACTION
- 532.67s
- CROWD LAG
- 580s
2026-08-04T21:32:03.754485+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 19.7% to 18.9%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 532666 ms. Crowd Lag 580 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 17.9% → 19.7%
- REACTION
- 498.87s
- CROWD LAG
- 183434s
2026-08-04T21:27:41.171809+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 17.9% to 19.7%; Polymarket was 17.5%. Reaction Time 498871 ms. Crowd Lag 183434 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 27.2% → 38.0%
- REACTION
- 595.52s
- CROWD LAG
- STILL OPEN
2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 27.2% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 26.5%. Reaction Time 595518 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.