Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T22:55:43.771Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T23:21:08.682Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T23:51:23.344Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:21:43.775Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:52:02.048Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:22:19.957Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:47:33.593Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:17:57.952Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:48:12.621Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:18:48.881Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:49:18.518Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:14:32.042Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:44:52.100Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:15:12.371Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:45:28.508Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:15:48.763Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:41:03.727Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:11:18.601Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:41:33.780Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:12:02.233Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:42:18.311Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:07:31.989Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:39:43.951Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:10:09.085Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:40:48.568Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:11:12.571Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:36:27.960Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:09.559Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:37:46.568Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z | 21.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.