Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T10:15:12.513Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:20:13.880Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:25:15.229Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:30:17.787Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:35:19.994Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:40:48.568Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:45:48.969Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:50:53.800Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:55:59.006Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:01:07.190Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:06:08.761Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:11:12.571Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:16:13.812Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:21:17.494Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:26:22.729Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:31:24.089Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:36:27.960Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:41:52.311Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:46:53.675Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:51:59.078Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:03.861Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:02:05.352Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:07:09.559Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:12:24.744Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:17:30.297Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:22:33.182Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:27:36.860Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:32:44.566Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:37:46.568Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:21.664Z | 21.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.