Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:57 UTCAnalysis: Jul 26, 2026, 10:57 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T23:36:17.287Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:01:28.589Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:26:48.660Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T00:52:02.048Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:17:13.584Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T01:42:33.021Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:07:48.402Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:33:03.517Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:58:17.312Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:23:57.331Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T03:49:18.518Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:14:32.042Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:39:49.111Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:05:07.247Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T05:35:22.074Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:00:38.608Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:25:53.520Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T06:51:08.486Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:16:22.209Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T07:41:33.780Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:06:58.462Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:32:12.119Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:57:27.263Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:22:48.637Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:49:50.112Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:15:12.513Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:40:48.568Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:06:08.761Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:31:24.089Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:57:03.861Z | 21.5% | - | — |
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.