Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 17:12 UTCResolved: Aug 5, 2026, 16:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T12:55:59.794Z | 56.5% | 57.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T12:57:49.712Z | 56.5% | 57.5% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:04:40.371Z | 56.5% | 57.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:05:33.462Z | 56.5% | 57.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:13:15.610Z | 56.5% | 36.9% | -19.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:22:02.434Z | 56.5% | 44.7% | -11.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:30:49.629Z | 56.5% | 40.7% | -15.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:36:58.744Z | 58.5% | 11.5% | -47.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:40:45.576Z | 58.5% | 27.9% | -30.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:48:46.277Z | 58.5% | 42.0% | -16.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:53:36.836Z | 58.5% | 45.2% | -13.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T13:56:46.110Z | 58.5% | 58.6% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:00:27.660Z | 58.5% | 67.7% | +9.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:07:01.108Z | 58.5% | 63.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:07:26.027Z | 58.5% | 63.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:16:42.950Z | 58.5% | 72.7% | +14.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:23:28.660Z | 58.5% | 62.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:28:41.348Z | 58.5% | 47.7% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:44:41.852Z | 72.0% | 52.9% | -19.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:56:04.897Z | 72.0% | 59.6% | -12.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:02:38.929Z | 72.0% | 63.9% | -8.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:08:09.580Z | 72.0% | 74.1% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:08:45.442Z | 72.0% | 74.1% | +2.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:22:01.244Z | 72.0% | 73.8% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:30:01.438Z | 72.0% | 78.0% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:40:59.453Z | 100.0% | 95.8% | -4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:54:51.720Z | 100.0% | 80.5% | -19.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:00:45.442Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:11:39.201Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:12:13.879Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 05, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 85.3% | −15 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:54 PM | 100.0% | 80.5% | −19 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:40 PM | 100.0% | 95.8% | −4.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:30 PM | 72.0% | 78.0% | +6.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 05, 03:22 PM | 72.0% | 73.8% | +1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 03:08 PM | 72.0% | 74.1% | +2.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 03:02 PM | 72.0% | 63.9% | −8.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 02:56 PM | 72.0% | 59.6% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.