Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 17:17 UTCResolved: Aug 5, 2026, 16:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T16:22:01.784Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:28:50.423Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:34:05.113Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:39:06.600Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:45:47.351Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:50:56.378Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:56:15.349Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T17:01:20.537Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T17:06:24.099Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T17:11:32.357Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T17:16:37.594Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T17:17:25.002Z | 100.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.