Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 17:18 UTCResolved: Aug 5, 2026, 16:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T14:28:41.348Z | 46.0% | 47.7% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:29:16.205Z | 46.0% | 47.7% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:42:13.080Z | 40.5% | 52.9% | +12.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:44:41.852Z | 40.5% | 52.9% | +12.4 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:47:26.037Z | 65.5% | 52.9% | -12.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:56:04.897Z | 65.5% | 59.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T14:56:09.185Z | 65.5% | 59.6% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:02:38.929Z | 73.0% | 63.9% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:05:17.907Z | 73.0% | 63.9% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:08:45.442Z | 73.0% | 74.1% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:14:16.981Z | 80.0% | 74.1% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:22:01.244Z | 58.0% | 73.8% | +15.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:23:14.461Z | 58.0% | 73.8% | +15.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:30:01.438Z | 88.0% | 78.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:35:27.185Z | 88.0% | 78.0% | -10.0 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:40:59.453Z | 92.0% | 95.8% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:44:26.721Z | 92.0% | 95.8% | +3.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:53:09.255Z | 86.0% | 80.5% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:54:51.720Z | 86.0% | 80.5% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:00:09.247Z | 75.5% | 85.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:00:45.442Z | 75.5% | 85.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:11:39.201Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:22:01.784Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:28:50.423Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:39:06.600Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:45:47.351Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:56:15.349Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:06:24.099Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:16:37.594Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:18:19.989Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 05, 04:00 PM | 75.5% | 85.3% | +9.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 05, 03:54 PM | 86.0% | 80.5% | −5.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:40 PM | 92.0% | 95.8% | +3.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 05, 03:30 PM | 88.0% | 78.0% | −10.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:22 PM | 58.0% | 73.8% | +16 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 05, 03:08 PM | 73.0% | 74.1% | +1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 03:02 PM | 73.0% | 63.9% | −9.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 02:56 PM | 65.5% | 59.6% | −5.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.