Ethereum Up or Down on August 5?
Ends: Aug 5, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 17:17 UTCResolved: Aug 5, 2026, 16:11 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T15:46:05.787Z | 93.0% | 89.1% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:49:56.828Z | 86.0% | 94.7% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:50:12.485Z | 86.0% | 94.7% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:52:46.570Z | 86.0% | 81.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:53:09.255Z | 86.0% | 81.4% | -4.6 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:54:24.462Z | 86.0% | 80.5% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:54:51.720Z | 86.0% | 80.5% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:55:16.019Z | 86.0% | 80.5% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:55:24.778Z | 86.0% | 80.5% | -5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:56:09.518Z | 86.0% | 85.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:56:53.403Z | 86.0% | 85.7% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-05T15:59:09.122Z | 70.5% | 85.3% | +14.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:00:45.442Z | 75.5% | 85.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:01:09.518Z | 75.5% | 85.3% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:03:11.715Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:05:09.237Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:11:39.201Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:16:51.037Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:22:01.784Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:28:50.423Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:34:05.113Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:39:06.600Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:45:47.351Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:50:56.378Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T16:56:15.349Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:01:20.537Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:06:24.099Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:11:32.357Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:16:37.594Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
| 2026-08-05T17:17:04.734Z | 100.0% | 85.3% | -14.7 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 05, 04:00 PM | 75.5% | 85.3% | +9.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 05, 03:56 PM | 86.0% | 85.7% | −0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 05, 03:55 PM | 86.0% | 80.5% | −5.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:55 PM | 86.0% | 80.5% | −5.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:54 PM | 86.0% | 80.5% | −5.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:52 PM | 86.0% | 81.4% | −4.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 05, 03:49 PM | 86.0% | 94.7% | +8.7 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 05, 03:46 PM | 93.0% | 89.1% | −3.9 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 4 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 5 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.