Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 16:58 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 18, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18T12:05:29.757Z | 26.5% | 19.7% | -6.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T12:15:50.565Z | 26.5% | 15.2% | -11.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T12:23:40.652Z | 26.5% | 16.9% | -9.6 pp |
| 2026-08-18T12:38:23.444Z | 14.0% | 12.2% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T12:46:46.412Z | 14.0% | 9.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T12:49:49.820Z | 14.0% | 10.1% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T12:56:08.490Z | 14.0% | 10.1% | -3.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:05:28.902Z | 14.0% | 5.3% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:06:46.074Z | 14.0% | 5.3% | -8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:19:50.183Z | 14.0% | 4.5% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:24:43.084Z | 14.0% | 3.2% | -10.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:35:27.227Z | 14.0% | 1.4% | -12.6 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:40:34.483Z | 11.0% | 3.6% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:49:41.759Z | 11.0% | 2.5% | -8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:54:39.887Z | 11.0% | 1.5% | -9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:06:47.478Z | 11.0% | 5.1% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:08:13.312Z | 11.0% | 5.1% | -5.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:12:00.571Z | 11.0% | 2.7% | -8.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:26:09.486Z | 11.0% | 34.3% | +23.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:36:52.847Z | 11.0% | 67.8% | +56.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:39:49.501Z | 52.0% | 64.1% | +12.1 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:52:49.331Z | 52.0% | 65.7% | +13.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:05:17.445Z | 52.0% | 70.4% | +18.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:08:29.980Z | 52.0% | 74.4% | +22.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:10:14.247Z | 52.0% | 74.4% | +22.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:16:52.662Z | 52.0% | 63.2% | +11.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:21:45.416Z | 52.0% | 79.3% | +27.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:47:33.737Z | 100.0% | 99.5% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:58:46.627Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T16:21:17.522Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 03:58 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 18, 03:47 PM | 100.0% | 99.5% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 18, 03:21 PM | 52.0% | 79.3% | +27 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:16 PM | 52.0% | 63.2% | +11 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:08 PM | 52.0% | 74.4% | +22 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:05 PM | 52.0% | 70.4% | +18 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 02:52 PM | 52.0% | 65.7% | +14 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 02:39 PM | 52.0% | 64.1% | +12 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.