Ethereum Up or Down on August 18?
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 16:58 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 18, 2026, 16:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18T13:50:20.309Z | 10.5% | 2.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:50:38.378Z | 10.5% | 2.5% | -8.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T13:54:41.352Z | 10.5% | 1.5% | -9.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:04:50.774Z | 12.5% | 6.0% | -6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:08:13.312Z | 11.0% | 6.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:09:39.827Z | 11.0% | 6.0% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:20:28.546Z | 15.0% | 7.2% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:23:48.642Z | 31.5% | 7.2% | -24.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:26:13.657Z | 31.5% | 7.2% | -24.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:32:16.253Z | 62.5% | 89.7% | +27.2 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:36:14.170Z | 62.5% | 67.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:37:20.564Z | 62.5% | 67.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:44:05.168Z | 53.0% | 61.7% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:46:53.954Z | 53.0% | 61.7% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:53:13.571Z | 56.0% | 54.3% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T14:55:55.248Z | 56.0% | 54.3% | -1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:02:14.109Z | 50.5% | 70.4% | +19.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:05:17.445Z | 50.5% | 70.4% | +19.9 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:08:29.980Z | 52.0% | 74.4% | +22.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:14:20.428Z | 52.0% | 76.0% | +24.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:19:45.311Z | 69.0% | 76.0% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:20:14.309Z | 69.0% | 76.0% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:23:47.629Z | 69.0% | 75.6% | +6.6 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:29:25.371Z | 83.0% | 75.6% | -7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:45:13.724Z | 93.0% | 99.5% | +6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:47:33.737Z | 93.0% | 99.5% | +6.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:50:18.983Z | 94.0% | 99.5% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-18T15:58:46.627Z | 94.0% | 100.0% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T16:10:58.698Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-18T16:21:17.522Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 03:58 PM | 94.0% | 100.0% | +6.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:47 PM | 93.0% | 99.5% | +6.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:23 PM | 69.0% | 75.6% | +6.6 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:19 PM | 69.0% | 76.0% | +7.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:08 PM | 52.0% | 74.4% | +22 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 03:05 PM | 50.5% | 70.4% | +20 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 18, 02:55 PM | 56.0% | 54.3% | −1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 18, 02:46 PM | 53.0% | 61.7% | +8.7 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 17 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 18 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.