Ethereum Up or Down on September 19?
Ends: Sep 19, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 19, 2026, 19:36 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 19, 2026, 19:09 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19T09:00:49.829Z | 97.9% | 96.2% | -1.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:08:42.170Z | 97.9% | 98.1% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:11:35.370Z | 97.9% | 97.7% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:12:42.957Z | 97.9% | 97.4% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:23:47.837Z | 97.9% | 97.9% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:55:24.764Z | 97.9% | 96.5% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:56:32.111Z | 97.9% | 96.8% | -1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T09:58:55.020Z | 97.9% | 96.7% | -1.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T10:57:26.546Z | 97.9% | 97.2% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T10:59:07.629Z | 97.9% | 97.2% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:04:28.779Z | 97.9% | 97.7% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:15:16.816Z | 97.9% | 98.0% | +0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:20:23.800Z | 97.9% | 97.8% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:23:16.243Z | 97.9% | 98.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:25:19.853Z | 97.9% | 98.3% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:31:59.836Z | 97.9% | 97.7% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:33:12.459Z | 97.9% | 97.7% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:37:30.823Z | 97.9% | 98.0% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T11:48:48.092Z | 97.9% | 98.3% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:27:30.041Z | 97.9% | 99.2% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:33:19.799Z | 97.9% | 99.2% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-19T12:47:12.422Z | 97.9% | 99.2% | +1.4 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:02:09.587Z | 99.0% | 99.4% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:29:41.170Z | 99.0% | 99.2% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-09-19T13:41:05.243Z | 99.0% | 99.6% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T14:25:43.703Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:03:44.752Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:06:44.209Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:30:14.449Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:48:19.177Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 03:48 PM | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 03:30 PM | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 03:03 PM | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:25 PM | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:41 PM | 99.0% | 99.6% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:29 PM | 99.0% | 99.2% | +0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:02 PM | 99.0% | 99.4% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 12:47 PM | 97.9% | 99.2% | +1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.