Ethereum Up or Down on September 19?
Ends: Sep 19, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 19, 2026, 19:44 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 19, 2026, 19:09 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19T14:37:50.252Z | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:02:37.972Z | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:11:45.061Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:18:46.679Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:21:44.126Z | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:30:14.449Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:34:03.665Z | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:44:10.272Z | 98.9% | 100.0% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:48:19.177Z | 98.9% | 100.0% | +1.1 pp |
| 2026-09-19T15:52:39.540Z | 99.0% | 100.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:19:22.118Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:24:28.064Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:40:08.048Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:45:22.715Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T16:55:55.974Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:01:03.880Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:11:17.224Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:21:28.236Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:31:39.890Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:36:44.095Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:47:52.295Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T17:58:01.594Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:08:13.399Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:14:23.542Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:24:35.922Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:34:44.062Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:45:37.612Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T18:50:44.437Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T19:01:11.813Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-09-19T19:11:24.846Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 03:48 PM | 98.9% | 100.0% | +1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 03:30 PM | 99.7% | 100.0% | +0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 03:18 PM | 99.1% | 100.0% | +0.9 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 02:37 PM | 99.4% | 100.0% | +0.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:41 PM | 98.0% | 99.6% | +1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:41 PM | 98.0% | 99.6% | +1.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 01:17 PM | 98.0% | 99.6% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 19, 12:49 PM | 98.0% | 99.3% | +1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Sep 18 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 19 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.