Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 09:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14T23:59:06.625Z | 5.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-16T10:48:48.740Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T08:57:11.162Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T21:57:22.068Z | 7.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T04:59:50.487Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:57:25.204Z | 2.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T18:58:09.566Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T02:59:02.343Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:08:15.075Z | 1.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.