Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 09:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08T04:51:15.873Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T04:57:05.939Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:07:26.057Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:17:36.121Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:28:05.536Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:33:12.547Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:43:26.786Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T05:53:37.061Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:03:51.955Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:14:16.909Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:19:20.597Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:29:42.833Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:39:57.482Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:50:06.388Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:55:13.080Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:05:26.384Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:15:41.361Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:25:56.550Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:31:01.489Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:41:12.514Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:51:22.286Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:01:37.327Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:12:05.343Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:17:17.761Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:29:10.602Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:34:27.379Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:44:44.156Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:54:56.921Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:05:15.021Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:08:50.342Z | 1.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.