Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 09:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T02:58:56.152Z | 6.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T03:55:37.640Z | 6.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T04:58:57.925Z | 6.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:55:53.480Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:59:00.786Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T07:55:26.189Z | 7.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T08:53:25.627Z | 7.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:54:46.173Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T11:01:25.187Z | 10.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T12:05:05.518Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T13:08:03.427Z | 7.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T14:10:16.692Z | 11.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T15:12:26.992Z | 13.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T16:15:06.148Z | 11.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T17:18:58.602Z | 5.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T18:25:49.995Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T19:28:57.117Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T20:30:27.429Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T21:32:29.805Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T22:39:03.552Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T23:40:41.018Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:44:07.551Z | 1.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T01:45:53.135Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T02:53:21.578Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T03:54:41.056Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T04:57:05.939Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T06:03:51.955Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T07:05:26.384Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:06:46.774Z | 1.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:08:15.075Z | 1.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.