Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 09:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T21:57:54.675Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T02:58:57.549Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T06:57:42.297Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T11:54:55.855Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T15:57:15.216Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T20:57:32.342Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T01:54:34.875Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T05:56:14.907Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T10:56:52.329Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T14:54:11.195Z | 3.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T19:54:57.931Z | 1.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:58:47.004Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T04:57:09.216Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T08:55:54.738Z | 3.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T13:58:04.574Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T17:58:23.199Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T22:56:00.044Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T02:59:02.343Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T07:55:24.247Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T11:58:32.906Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T16:59:43.572Z | 9.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T20:59:55.805Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T01:56:09.067Z | 10.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T06:59:00.786Z | 5.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T10:30:34.571Z | 10.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T15:06:41.167Z | 13.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T19:34:02.905Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T00:06:21.706Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T04:40:57.696Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T09:08:15.075Z | 1.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.