Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026?
Ends: Aug 14, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 8, 2026, 08:15 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-02T20:59:34.864Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T01:56:01.127Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T06:57:42.297Z | 2.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T10:54:59.860Z | 1.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T15:57:15.216Z | 1.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-03T19:56:01.182Z | 2.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T00:57:37.527Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T04:57:15.889Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T09:56:10.937Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T13:59:46.806Z | 3.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T18:53:38.257Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:54:56.279Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:59:57.018Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T07:58:36.748Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T12:55:46.400Z | 2.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T16:55:50.589Z | 2.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T21:59:09.393Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T01:57:47.178Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T06:58:35.634Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T11:58:32.906Z | 0.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T15:58:23.436Z | 8.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-06T20:59:55.805Z | 9.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T00:59:19.345Z | 11.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T05:55:53.480Z | 6.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T09:39:25.335Z | 9.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T14:10:16.692Z | 11.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T18:41:13.190Z | 4.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-07T23:15:15.694Z | 2.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T03:44:30.996Z | 1.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-08T08:15:40.008Z | 1.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by August 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.