Ethereum Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 17:57 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 7, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T12:32:35.099Z | 86.5% | 92.1% | +5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:40:47.422Z | 86.5% | 89.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:50:41.608Z | 86.5% | 91.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:53:15.256Z | 86.5% | 91.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:59:41.930Z | 86.5% | 94.1% | +7.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:07:37.309Z | 86.5% | 93.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:20:41.700Z | 86.5% | 93.7% | +7.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:27:15.938Z | 84.5% | 90.0% | +5.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:35:47.852Z | 84.5% | 95.9% | +11.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:40:14.759Z | 84.5% | 90.6% | +6.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:48:33.607Z | 84.5% | 91.5% | +7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:57:31.644Z | 84.5% | 91.9% | +7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T13:57:37.860Z | 84.5% | 91.9% | +7.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:05:41.783Z | 84.5% | 62.9% | -21.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:09:34.958Z | 84.5% | 59.6% | -24.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:17:31.400Z | 84.5% | 64.1% | -20.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:26:47.749Z | 84.5% | 87.8% | +3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:34:28.326Z | 66.0% | 90.4% | +24.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:44:46.756Z | 66.0% | 86.5% | +20.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:50:48.217Z | 66.0% | 83.7% | +17.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:20.093Z | 66.0% | 67.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:20.979Z | 66.0% | 67.0% | +1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:05:16.783Z | 66.0% | 68.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:13:20.373Z | 66.0% | 83.6% | +17.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:20:46.235Z | 66.0% | 79.2% | +13.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:25:51.692Z | 66.0% | 84.9% | +18.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:34:08.595Z | 100.0% | 96.6% | -3.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:48:44.098Z | 100.0% | 98.6% | -1.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:00:44.487Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:05:16.537Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:48 PM | 100.0% | 98.6% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:34 PM | 100.0% | 96.6% | −3.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 07, 03:25 PM | 66.0% | 84.9% | +19 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:20 PM | 66.0% | 79.2% | +13 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:13 PM | 66.0% | 83.6% | +18 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:05 PM | 66.0% | 68.7% | +2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 02:59 PM | 66.0% | 67.0% | +1.0 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.