Ethereum Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 17:57 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 7, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T15:28:38.146Z | 86.5% | 89.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:29:03.839Z | 86.5% | 89.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:29:08.607Z | 86.5% | 89.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:31:43.683Z | 94.0% | 87.1% | -6.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:33:55.066Z | 94.0% | 96.6% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:34:08.595Z | 94.0% | 96.6% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:34:10.440Z | 94.0% | 96.6% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:36:41.641Z | 94.0% | 93.0% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:38:50.999Z | 88.0% | 92.7% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:39:09.255Z | 88.0% | 92.7% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:39:31.506Z | 88.0% | 92.7% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:40:12.580Z | 88.0% | 92.3% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:41:01.788Z | 88.0% | 92.3% | +4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:43:54.901Z | 97.0% | 99.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:45:10.952Z | 97.0% | 99.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:45:48.036Z | 97.0% | 99.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:47:14.375Z | 97.0% | 99.0% | +2.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:48:44.098Z | 97.0% | 98.6% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:49:19.549Z | 97.0% | 98.6% | +1.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:50:43.612Z | 97.0% | 99.6% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:52:39.113Z | 99.5% | 99.9% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:54:42.630Z | 99.5% | 99.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:55:16.072Z | 99.5% | 99.3% | -0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:57:51.117Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:58:10.932Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:00:44.487Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:05:16.537Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:10:32.284Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:15:40.968Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:21:10.810Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | -0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 04:00 PM | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:57 PM | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:54 PM | 99.5% | 99.3% | −0.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:52 PM | 99.5% | 99.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:50 PM | 97.0% | 99.6% | +2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:48 PM | 97.0% | 98.6% | +1.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:45 PM | 97.0% | 99.0% | +2.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:41 PM | 88.0% | 92.3% | +4.3 pp | BUY UP |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.