Ethereum Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 17:57 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 7, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T14:09:17.218Z | 56.5% | 61.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:09:20.843Z | 56.5% | 61.8% | +5.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:14:42.809Z | 64.5% | 68.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:15:17.406Z | 64.5% | 68.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:22:43.164Z | 73.5% | 83.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:24:18.973Z | 73.5% | 83.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:33:11.958Z | 83.5% | 90.4% | +6.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:33:52.269Z | 83.5% | 90.4% | +6.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:37:42.682Z | 83.5% | 92.8% | +9.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:42:26.139Z | 84.5% | 84.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:46:40.561Z | 84.5% | 84.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:51:13.553Z | 80.5% | 71.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:54:46.361Z | 80.5% | 71.4% | -9.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:01:10.432Z | 66.0% | 68.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:03:45.231Z | 66.0% | 68.7% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:07:40.530Z | 65.5% | 72.8% | +7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:10:15.131Z | 65.5% | 72.8% | +7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:14:43.763Z | 65.5% | 73.3% | +7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:20:21.197Z | 76.5% | 79.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:20:47.458Z | 76.5% | 79.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:28:38.146Z | 86.5% | 89.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:29:03.839Z | 86.5% | 89.1% | +2.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:36:41.641Z | 88.0% | 93.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:39:31.506Z | 88.0% | 93.0% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:46:11.168Z | 97.0% | 98.6% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:48:44.098Z | 97.0% | 98.6% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T15:55:16.072Z | 99.5% | 100.0% | +0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:00:44.487Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:05:16.537Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T16:15:40.968Z | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 04:00 PM | 100.0% | 100.0% | +0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:48 PM | 97.0% | 98.6% | +1.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:36 PM | 88.0% | 93.0% | +5.0 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:29 PM | 86.5% | 89.1% | +2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:20 PM | 76.5% | 79.2% | +2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:14 PM | 65.5% | 73.3% | +7.8 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:07 PM | 65.5% | 72.8% | +7.3 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 07, 03:03 PM | 66.0% | 68.7% | +2.7 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.